This Week In Dairy 06-30-2023

June 30, 2023

 



 

Milk Markets Mostly Higher

  • While some months were higher today in Class III and IV, those gains only minimized weekly losses in the second half of 2023 for both classes.
  • Spot markets found consistent buyers on the week, over 100 loads of cheese and 62 loads of whey were the leaders.
  • April US milk production rose 0.61% year-over-year, while butterfat production was up 2.12% for the same time period.
  • US dairy cow culling for the week ending June 17th, up 6.6% from the same week last year.

Despite a mainly positive day throughout Class III and Class IV futures to end the week, Q3 and Q4 averages for both classes were still significantly lower through the week.  Class III Q3 and Q4 averages fell $1.18/cwt and $0.82/cwt, settling at $15.067 and $17.37, respectively.  Class IV followed the lead and was down $0.247 and $0.57 for Q3 and Q4, settling at $17.73 and $18.053, respectively.  Keeping the premium to Class IV and also seemingly propping up the entirety of the dairy complex currently is butter, which has staved off lower prices and stayed relatively rangebound between $2.30-2.40/lb. for all of 2023.  The heavy volume of trading in the whey market brought marginal gains in today’s trade after settling at its lowest price ever yesterday, cheese was even on the day, while powder was lightly traded and remains well off the 2022 and 2023 highs.  Next week is relatively quiet for fundamentals here in the US with a short holiday week on tap but will have a Global Dairy Trade event while domestic markets are closed here on the 4th.  Next weeks communications will be slightly altered due to the holiday, expect the dairy video and typical dairy strategy email from Monday to come out on Wednesday the 5th along with the feed email that will cover today’s Planted Acreage report.


 

Acreage Report Piles on Corn Acres

  • Today’s updated Acreage Report set US corn acres to a 10 year high, up 2.1 million acres from the previous report to 94.1 million acres.
  • Improving forecasts and increased acres saw December corn futures down to under $5, a total drop of over 21% in the December contract in the last 7 trading sessions; second largest 7 day skid in the last 30 years.
  • Despite today’s negative trade, drought conditions for many continue to worsen as 70% of the crop is currently in drought conditions, up 6 points from last week.
  • Crop ratings have plunged due to lack of moisture with a 6 point drop in good/excellent ratings and in increase in poor/very poor ratings of 12%.
  • Forecasts continue to point towards rain for much of the rain belt but some storms that brought rain also brought severe winds and hail along with it.


Meal Takes Off Post Report

  • With corn gaining acres, someone had to lose acres, and that was beans, falling 4 million total acres from the prior report to 83.5 million planted acres.
  • The soy complex enjoyed the news of lessened acres and found heavy buying throughout.  November beans rallied 77 cents per bushel while December meal rose $16.80/ton.
  • Estimates point to 63% of the soybean crop to be in drought conditions, up 6 points from last week.
  • With harvest all but wrapped up in Argentina, yields are being estimated at 45% of the 5 year average.


 

Friday’s Market Quotes

Author

Michael Minster

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