Corn Lower on Demand Concerns
- March CBOT corn futures shed 14-1/4 cents today to close at 646-1/4, down 25 cents for the week
- July CBOT corn futures were down 9-3/4 cents today, closing at 644-1/4
- Ideas that US production could be revised upward, and export demand lowered, weighed on prices
- Corn futures have dropped to its lowest level since late August and could be headed back to fill the gap left that week at 635
- Corn export sales reported for the week were another disappointment and, coupled with weakness in the soybean complex, pushed corn below support
- Higher ethanol stocks versus the same time last year suggests slowing demand
- Informa lowered its estimate of the 2023 World corn crop by 2.5 million tons due to lower Ukraine production
- Ukraine’s corn harvest is just over 60% complete and, while the crop is lower, shipments are flowing
Soybeans Near Unchanged After Bean Oil Selloff
- January CBOT soybean futures gained 8-3/4 cents today to close at 1438-1/2, up 2-1/4 cents for the week
- March CBOT soybean futures finished 9-3/4 cents higher today at 1446-1/2
- Soybeans had a rollercoaster of a week. After futures prices reached their highest level in more than two months and the July contract nearly made it to 1500, a sharp selloff in bean oil futures pressured prices lower
- Soybean oil futures were down more than 10% from the week’s highs and traded limit lower on Thursday after the EPA released its RFS revised mandate. The proposed change is for much less use of bean oil in biofuels than expected.
- Yesterday, China bought 10 cargoes of beans with 4 from the US for December and 6 from Brazil for Feb/March
- On a weekly chart, the trend remains higher with all 2023 contracts recording higher highs and higher lows. The 20-week moving average (1422 Jan) was tested and proved to be support again this week
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Wheat Prices Lower for the Week
- December CBOT wheat futures shed 10-1/2 cents this week to close at 803-1/4
- December KCBOT wheat futures shed 9-1/4 cents this week to close at 934-1/4
- December MGEX wheat futures added 5-3/4 cents this week to close at 951-1/2
- Informa raised its estimate for the 2023 World wheat crop my 4.5 million tons on higher production in China and India
- Wheat export sales were only 5.7 million bushels last week which is the second smallest weekly total for that date since 1996
- Managed money is currently holding its largest net-short position in 3 years
- US winter wheat conditions improved somewhat after last week’s rains, but the Plains are still in an extreme drought and will need higher than normal winter precipitation to replenish soil moisture before crops come out of dormancy in the spring
Milk Market Lower; Spot Products Mixed
Class III January futures made a large turnaround as the price dipped to $19.37 and rebounded back to $20 by Friday, losing only 10 cents on the contract overall this week. Class IV January futures gapped lower on Monday and despite a small trading range for the week of only 4 cents, the contract was down 41 cents from last Friday’s settlement. Spot cheese followed Class III futures lower early in the week, then rebounded in later sessions to settle fractions of a penny under $2/lb, spot butter remains relatively rangebound the last two weeks and closed today near the bottom of the range at $2.90/lb, spot powder continues to trend lower with a settlement of $1.36/lb, while whey was nearly unchanged this week at $0.45/lb.
Author
Marianne Janka