Corn Closes Below Key Support

• September CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 521.
• December CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 530-1/4.
• After following wheat prices higher to start the week, corn futures faced sellers to end the week closing below key support levels of the 50 and 100-day moving averages.
• Late-week weather models show next week’s heat staying in the Southern Plains rather than the western Corn Belt, this should allow for ridge-riding storms to pop up in the Midwest.
• 59% of US corn-producing areas are experiencing drought according to this week’s drought monitor, this is up 4% from last week and the worst since 2012.

Soybeans Stumble Near Contract Highs

• September CBOT soybean futures added 4 cents this week to close at 1433.
• November CBOT soybean futures shed 19-1/4 cents this week closing at 1382-1/2.
• This week November soybeans were within 13-1/4 cents of the contact high but weakness to end the week put futures back below the $14 level resulting in technically poor weekly price action.
• First support on a break lower in November soybeans should come in at the 200-day moving average near the 1335 level.
• New crop soybeans had three separate daily flash sales to unknown destinations this week but current 2023/24 marketing year sales are still nearly 60% behind last year’s pace.
• Many private crop estimating firms continue to leave US soybean yield unchanged from early season estimates with a lack of significant weather threats in past weeks or in forecast outlooks. August CPC outlooks are calling for below-normal temperatures in the western Midwest and above-normal precipitation in the southern Midwest.

Wheat Mixed on the Week

• CBOT September wheat futures added 6-3/4 cents this week to close at 704-1/4.
• KCBOT September wheat futures shed 4 cents this week to close at 856-1/4.
• MGEX September spring wheat futures added 14-3/4 cents this week to close at 901-3/4.
• The Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour concluded Thursday in Fargo. The tour is estimating US spring wheat yield of 47.4 bpa, last year the tour found a yield of 49.1 bpa.
• Weekend news out of the Black Sea region will be watched closely by the trade for direction of the Sunday night open.
• A sharp reversal higher in the US Dollar Index in the last two weeks has added pressure to the wheat complex.

Weekly Dairy Trade Mixed, Up Overall

• The spot cheese trade stalled mid-week but was higher on the week overall, the block/barrel average up over 11 cents per pound on the week.
• Cold storage from earlier in the week showed strong growth in butter inventories and overall cheese inventories lower than last year.
• Regional cheese reports offer bullish support of prices stating milk availability tightening with strong demand for cheese.
• Dairy cow culling continues at strong rates YoY, with the week ending 7/15 up 7.5% from last year.