TFM Morning Update 12-30-2024

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and is now at its highest level since June 26 as strong demand continues to support prices. March corn took out resistance last week at $4.50 and have continued higher.
The CFTC report was delayed due to the holidays and will be released this afternoon, but over the past 5 trading days, funds have added approximately 38,000 contracts to their long position.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 81% of the country’s corn crop was planted, but 20% is tasseling and 12% is silking. The drier 10-day forecast will likely support prices.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have taken back all of Friday’s losses with the March contract now trading at resistance at the 50-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
The CFTC report will be released later today, but over the past five trading days, funds are estimated to have bought back about 20,000 contracts.
The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the week with Chicago wheat leading the way. Export sales were better than expected, US wheat is still relatively cheap, and there may be production problems in Russia.
Funds hold a net short position in both Chicago and KC wheat, but over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 7,000 contracts.
Turkish wheat production is expected to fall by 5.5% in 2024 according to TurkStat. Total cereals output decreased by 7.5% in 2024, and the country will start to more freely allow wheat imports as a result.

Amanda Brill