TFM Morning Update 12-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, but trade is quiet with resistance at the $4.50 level. Yesterday’s export inspections were good, and strong demand in general has been supportive.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw total corn inspections at 44.5 million bushels which put the year to date total up 31% from last year at this time.
While South American weather has been beneficial to the corn crop, one area of concern may be in Argentina where weather has turned drier. There are forecast rains over the next 10 days that need to fall or there could be problems.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after weak trade yesterday brought on by disappointing NOPA crush numbers despite a solid export inspections report. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed that members crushed 193.2 million bushels of soybeans which was 3.5 mb below the average trade estimate but was just slightly below record breaking October crush.
According to AgRural, estimates for the 24/25 Brazilian soybean crop are seen at 171.5 mmt as rains fell over most of the country for a week right as planting was wrapped up.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices recover slightly from quiet and weak trade yesterday. Yesterday morning, prices were up 6 cents but found sellers which led to a lower close.
In Argentina, estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop production have been increased by 0.5 mmt with over half the crop now harvested. Larger producer, Russia, may reportedly see cuts to their production which would be friendly.
Ukrainian grain exports are 22% higher year over year so far this season. Total exports included 9.2 mmt of wheat which is up 37% from last year.

Amanda Brill