TFM Morning Update 11-12-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning but have been quiet so far this week and have not taken out last Friday’s high. Basis levels improved again yesterday, and with the move higher in prices, producers have a chance to make decent cash sales.
Export inspections today are expected to be strong again for corn as demand has been very good recently. Some traders were discouraged that the USDA did not increase demand in last week’s WASDE report, but the fact that it was not lowered like production was is a good sign.
In France, production estimates for the corn crop have been increased to 14.6 mmt from 14.5 mmt last month despite heavy rains throughout harvest. This production would be 10% above the 5-year average if realized.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a loss of around 8 cents yesterday. The fundamental picture has not changed much, and it should be noted that January soybeans failed at the 200-day moving average two days in a row which could point to a technical sell-off.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, but soybean oil is posting larger losses. This is in contrast to the recent trend in which soybean meal was selling off while soybean oil was rallying. It is possible that soybean meal simply got too cheap which incentivized buyers.
In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC leading the way lower. Yesterday, wheat futures took a sharp dive and were down nearly 20 cents before they recovered into the end of day for a more mild loss.
Yesterday’s sell-0ff may have kicked off as a result of widespread rains over the driest HRW wheat areas over the weekend, but some demand kicked in at those lower prices bringing futures back within their recent trading range.
In Ukraine, Astarta’s winter wheat crop is now completely planted. Over 46k hectares of winter wheat were planted which is down 6.1% from last year’s planting. Hectares may have been taken from winter wheat and given to rapeseeed.

Amanda Brill