TFM Morning Update 11-06-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after Donald Trump was announced as the winner of the Presidency, but concerns remain with traders nervous about potential future Chinese tariffs which could hurt export demand.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the previous estimate to 1,936 mb. Corn yield estimates are expected to be unchanged at 183.8 bpa. World ending stocks are also expected to be revised slightly lower.
Over the past five days, funds are estimated to have bought back 7,000 contracts of corn. While this was relatively quiet movement, funds are now very close to having an established net long position.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning and are feeling the brunt of the Trump election win and concern over tariffs. The US dollar rallied on the news which has pressured grains and crude oil. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. World ending stocks are expected to be slightly lowered.
The Argentinian soybean crop production is expected to be revised slightly higher to 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt last month, and Brazilian production is expected to be lowered to 168.6 mmt from 169.0 mmt last month.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as the sharp rise in the dollar pressures commodities. In addition, there are increased chances of rain over the next 7 days in Kansas and the Texas panhandle.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see wheat ending stocks rising slightly to 813 mb and world ending stocks falling slightly from last month’s estimate.
Russia’s grain harvest may fall by 20 to 22 mmt due to weather issues according to the Russian ag minister. The harvest estimate has been adjusted nearer to 130 mmt which is down from the previous 150 mmt.

Amanda Brill