TFM Morning Update 11-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning but has been in a tight range over the past week as trade anticipates the election results. Strong exports have been supportive while harvest pressure and South American weather have been negative keeping prices gridlocked.
Yesterday’s export sales of 92.2 million bushels of corn were strong but were below last week’s massive number. They were well above last year at this time. Export shipments of 31.0 mb were below the 46.4 mb needed each week.
Argentina’s corn crop may see improved numbers this year as the leafhopper disease in the country seems to have improved. Corn plantings have exceeded 15.6 million acres so far, but farmers had planned to limit corn planting after the crop was nearly destroyed last season.

Soybeans are trading higher again this morning and are on track for a third consecutively higher close. Soybean meal continues to slide lower while soybean oil trades higher.
Estimates for September soybean crush is around 187.6 million bushels which would be a 7.3% increase from the previous year if realized.
Higher palm oil prices has been the main driver for soybean and soybean oil recently as energy prices have rebounded. This supports renewable diesel production and has helped world veg oil prices.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning led by higher Chicago wheat. December futures have traded just below their 50-day moving average, but trade has been focused on whether or not rain falls in Kansas and the panhandle area.
The Ukrainian grain harvest is reportedly 91.2% complete at a total of 48 mmt. 22.3 mmt of that amount is wheat. Wheat exports have been up as well with 7.7 mmt exported.
SovEcon has lowered its estimate for Russia’s 24/25 grain export forecast citing a decrease in the crop forecast and a policy change that states that Russian grain must be delivered to consumers by Russian exporters only.

Amanda Brill