TFM Morning Update 10-18-2024

CORN

The corn market is quietly trading higher, at the top of its tight 2 1/4 cent range, as strength from yesterday’s firm close carries over.
Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, in line with analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production, keeping the pace needed to meet USDA usage targets.
Recent rains in Brazil and Argentina are helping to progress corn planting. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, corn planting is estimated to be 24.3% complete, up from 18.6% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers in on Thursday, buying an estimated 4,000 corn futures contracts. They are currently estimated to be net short 65,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and toward the middle of the rather tight 7 cent range in the November contract. Higher soybean meal prices are lending support to soybeans, while bean oil is slightly lower after rejecting overnight highs.
While the improvement in Brazil’s planting conditions with the coming of the monsoonal rains has weighed on soybean prices, the need for US commercials to blend poorer quality beans from the south with higher quality N. Midwestern beans has firmed basis and likely the spreads.
China’s pork production has reportedly fallen for the third consecutive quarter versus last year, with the current pig herd down 3.5% year over year. This decline could reduce the country’s need for imported feed stocks like soybean meal.
Managed funds were active buyers in the soybean market on Thursday, buying an estimated 6,000 soybean futures contracts. They are currently estimated to be net short 45,000 contracts.

The wheat complex is currently mixed as all three classes trade within a penny of unchanged, though towards the bottom of their respective ranges.
Australia’s 24/25 wheat production is expected to climb 18% to 30.62 million metric tons when compared to last year, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, due to favorable growing conditions in New South Wales and Western Australia.
Significant rainfall is expected for the southern Plains over the weekend. This highly important area of HRW wheat country has been on the drier side for the last few weeks, helping support wheat prices.
Managed funds were rather quiet in the Chicago wheat market on Thursday, buying an estimated 2,000 contracts, putting their estimated net short position at 31,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts.

Scott Masters