TFM Morning Update 10-15-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and is on track for its fourth consecutively lower close. December futures are now 28 cents off their high from the beginning of this month as harvest continues.
Yields in Iowa and Illinois are expected to be very impressive and could result in total production that is larger than expected and bigger than on farm storage which would cause more cash sales to occur. Ending stocks are expected to be just a hair shy of 2 billion bushels.
As of Friday, funds had reduced their net short position to just over 23,000 contracts which is a far cry from the massive short position they had just months ago. Yesterday however, funds were estimated to have sold a whopping 17,500 contracts of corn and another 14,000 contracts the three prior days.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the November contract still below $10. Today’s crush numbers are expected to be supportive, but lower crude oil may be pressuring the commodity. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
Crude oil is down 3 dollars this morning after Israel said that it was willing to avoid targeting Iranian oil facilities and nuclear facilities. The ebb and flow of tensions in the Middle East have had a significant impact on oil prices which have in turn influenced commodity prices to some degree.
Today’s NOPA crush report is expected to show a rebound in crush numbers for September following a three year low the previous month. 170.331 mb of soybeans were estimated to have been crushed which would be up 7.8% from the August crush numbers.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning and have trended slightly lower after failing at their 200-day moving average twice this month. The last time Chicago wheat traded above its 200-day was in June. World weather remains bullish, but technicals may have gotten slightly overbought.
In Ukraine, the winter wheat planting pace is slightly ahead of the previous year and have also expanded their planted area. 3.3 million hectares of winter wheat are expected to be planted which compares to 3m hectares last year.
In Argentina, the wheat crop had been struggling with dry weather, but rains over the past week have improved crop conditions and more moisture is in the 15-day forecast. Before the rains, the Rosario grains exchange had cut production estimates to 19.5 mmt.

Amanda Brill