TFM Morning Update 10-10-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading higher this morning on the back of yet again higher wheat prices.
Dry conditions are forecast for nearly the entire Corn Belt over the next 10 days this should allow for harvest to continue to progress along at a rapid pace.
Traders are expecting a slight decrease in yield on Friday’s WASDE report compared to the September estimate. Over the last 10 years, the average yield adjustment from September to October has been a 0.2 bushel increase.
The US exported a record volume of ethanol over the last 12 months, nearly 30% higher than the five-year average. Canada accounted for nearly 40% of the volume, while the UK took the #2 spot.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning after appearing to have found short-term support during Wednesday’s session.
While some moisture is falling in Mato Grosso, Brazil, some are questioning if the current forecast will be enough to alleviate the major soil moisture deficits that have built over the last few months.
Analysts expect the soybean production estimate to come in slightly lower than last month on tomorrow’s WASDE report. The October report has historically brought little to no changes to the soybean balance sheet when compared to the September report.
November soybean futures found support at the 50-day moving average so far this week, a hold of this support by market close Friday afternoon would look encouraging.

All three wheat classes are trading moderately higher this morning as they continue to build on their recent strength.
The next 10 days is forecast to remain dry across both the US Plains and the Black Sea region where conditions have recently been too dry for winter wheat establishment.
Traders are expecting a slight cut to 2024/25 wheat ending stocks on Friday’s WASDE report from 828 mb in September to 821 in this month’s estimate. If realized, this would still be the highest carryout in the last four years.

Keegan Madigan