TFM Morning Update 09-27-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading mid-range and off its overnight highs in a quiet 3 3/4 cent range in the December contract, following yesterday’s reversal lower from fresh highs.
While the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine corn planting to cover 6.3 million hectares for the 24/25 crop season, with a 47 million metric ton harvest. The exchange also stated that it could cut those estimates if key areas don’t receive rain in the coming weeks.
Monday, the USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
Weekly corn export sales as reported by the USDA yesterday for the week ending Sept. 19, were weak at just 535,000 metric tons, and behind the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections. Total export sales are currently at 25% of the USDA’s goal versus the 5-year average of 28% sold by this time.
Managed funds were active buyers in the corn market yesterday, covering an estimated 7,000 net short contracts. Managed funds are now estimated to be net short about 110,000 corn futures contracts. The CFTC will be out later today with updated positions as of Tuesday, Sept. 24.

Soybeans are currently trading a little higher this morning, near the top end of their 13-cent range with support from moderately higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is trading lower, as it follows through on yesterday’s key bearish reversal.
Weekly soybean export sales for the week ending Sept. 19, came in slightly ahead of expectations at 1.575 million metric tons. Current total commitments are running at 35% of the USDA’s goal versus the 5-year average of 42% at this time of year.
The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which can sometimes contain surprises. Soybean stocks are expected to come in at 347 million bushels which would be up 31% from the 264 mb in September 2023.
Managed funds were active sellers of soybeans yesterday, selling an estimated 3,000 contracts. Managed funds are now estimated to be net short about 91,000 soybean futures contracts. The CFTC will be out this afternoon with updated positions as of Tuesday, Sept. 24.

The wheat complex is trading lower across all three classes and near mid-range this morning as the markets follow through on yesterday’s weakness and traders square positions ahead of the weekend and Monday’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains report.
Monday’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports will be released Monday. A Bloomberg survey projects that it will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR dropped its grain production forecast for 2024 to 124.5 million metric tons from 125 mmt. Of that total, 81.8 mmt is wheat, which was cut from 82.2 mmt. For now, the agency is maintaining its wheat export forecast at 44 mmt for the 24/25 season.
Weekly export sales for wheat as of Thursday, Sept. 19, came in well below expectations, at a weak 159,000 metric tons, about half of the weekly total needed to reach the USDA’s export goals. Total sales are currently slightly ahead of the 5-year average sales pace for this time.
Yesterday, Managed funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, and they are now estimated to hold a relatively small, short position totaling 19,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts. The CFTC will be out later this afternoon with updated position information as of Tuesday, Sept. 24.

Amanda Brill