TFM Morning Update 09-06-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower to start the day following yesterday’s lower close which broke a 4-day winning streak. Prices remain 26 cents off their contract lows and have gained 10 cents so far this week.
Later this morning, the USDA will release its export sales report, and estimates for corn exports are in a range between 600k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,156k tons. This would compare to 1,509k tons last week.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released its weekly corn production report and has kept estimates for production unchanged at 46.5 mmt. In addition, they have also pegged the corn harvest as 100% complete.

Soybeans are lower to start the day, but were also lower yesterday morning before rallying into the close for a positive finish. In just 3 weeks, November soybeans have rallied 65 cents off their lows and are up 20 cents this week. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Later this morning, the USDA will release its export sales report, and estimates for soybean exports are between 700k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,88k tons. After all the recent sales to China, it would not be surprising to see a number toward the higher end of the trade range. Last week’s sales totaled 2,472k tons.
In Argentina, soy crush workers had previously been striking due to low wages, but an agreement was reached between the union and agricultural traders which has ended the strike. They achieved a 26% raise.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices consolidate and cool off with stochastics in well overbought territory. Prices have rallied by 52 cents in just 1.5 weeks for December Chicago wheat.
While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat exports in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 463k tons. This would compare with last week’s exports of 498k tons.

Amanda Brill