TFM Morning Update 09-05-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after four consecutive days of higher closes which has seen December corn gain 9-1/4 cents on the week so far and also has the contract 25 cents off its contract low from last week.
Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its new estimate for the national corn yield and raised it to 182.9 bpa. Next Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report which will show their updated yield estimates.
Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 40,000 contracts of corn which would be a very large move and would take their net short position well off its record lengths.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after four consecutively higher closes as they meet some technical resistance at the top of the Bollinger Band, but similar to corn, expectations of higher yields may be adding pressure today. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
Yesterday, StoneX revised its estimate for the US soybean yield and increased it along with corn to 53.0 bpa. The increase comes despite the dry forecast which many speculate could trim yields slightly.
In Brazil, dry conditions are preventing early planting of soybeans, but forecasts show an improvement near the middle of September. Soybean planted area is only set to expand by 0.9% from last year which is the slowest expansion pace for the country in 18 years.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but the majority of losses are in the Chicago wheat contract. Prices have gotten slightly overbought after wheat posted 6 consecutively higher closes and are now 50 cents off their contract lows.
While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
In Ukraine, it is estimated that the 2025 planted winter wheat area could rise to more than 5 million hectares which would compare to 4.7 million hectares in 2024. They are expected to plant less rapeseed in favor of wheat due to drought.

Amanda Brill