TFM Morning Update 09-03-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the December contract is still trading above $4.00 thanks to Friday’s rally. Support last week has come from the drier 2-week forecast that could impact ear fill in some areas.
In Brazil, summer corn plantings are estimated at 8% complete as of August 29. This compares to 4% completion last week but 13% at this time last year. There have been planting delays in the country due to dryness and very cold temperatures recorded earlier last week.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought back 15,998 contracts of corn as of August 27 which left them with a net short position of 241,908 contracts. The drier weather forecast has likely caused them to cover more shorts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have been on a steady upward trend since the low on August 16. The November contract has gained 45 cents since that low as the drier forecast has been more beneficial to soybean prices.
Soybean meal is trading higher today but soybean oil is sharply lower after China opened an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola after tariffs were placed on Chinese electric vehicles. This has put pressure on both canola and soybean oil.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of August 27 as they bought back 6,207 contracts leaving them short 176,551 contracts which is close to their record short.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning led by losses in KC wheat. Cheaper European wheat futures and falling global wheat export prices have pressured US wheat.
In Russia, SovEcon has reduced their estimate for the country’s wheat crop down to 82.5 mmt from a previous estimate of 83.3 mmt citing lower than expected yields in some areas.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 3,217 contracts which left them net short 56,202 contracts, but funds remain well off their largest short position of the year from April.

Amanda Brill