TFM Morning Update 08-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with the December contract breaking out of its recent trading range and making new contracts lows. The pressure comes from a good weather forecast and the expectation of large yields.
In Brazil, 94.2% of the 2024 second crop corn has been harvested which compares to 82.9% at this same time last year. The summer corn planting is 4.2% finished as of August 22 and compares with 7.5% completion at this time a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers, adding an additional 8,889 contracts to their net short position. This left them with a short position of 257,896 contracts.

Soybeans are lower to start the week, but unlike corn, have not made new contract lows. The November contract is 8 cents above its low which was put in on the 16th of August. Soybean meal is lower this morning while soybean oil is trading slightly higher.
The ProFarmer crop tour wrapped up last week and showed big pod counts for soybeans that could result in big yields. The tour estimated soybean production at 4.7 billion bushels with an average yield of 55 bpa. This would be higher than the USDA’s estimate of 4.6 bb and 53 bpa.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold an additional 8,311 contracts which left them net short 182,758 contracts which is near their record short position.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Minneapolis wheat leading the way lower. All three classes have also made new contract lows. This has come despite a large sell-off in the dollar which is normally supportive for wheat.
There have been concerns for the quality of the spring wheat crop that is being harvested with cooler temperatures and rain impacting quality.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 20,303 contracts which left them net short 52,985 contracts. Funds sold 2,495 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 35,319 contracts.

Amanda Brill