TFM Morning Update 07-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as prices attempt to stabilize after Monday’s poor start to the week and the subsequent selling following.
The remnants of Hurricane Beryl have moved on out of the Corn Belt and the forecast is now calling for above normal temperatures that should be beneficial to drying out fields while not harming the crop.
According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts are forecasting Brazilian corn production higher at 115.48 mmt which would compare with CONAB’s last estimate of 114.14 mmt. CONAB will release its updated July numbers at 9am central.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after 3 consecutively lower closes that have brought new crop soybean prices below the $11 mark. August is back to being bull spread against the November contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
On Friday, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.
CONAB previously estimated Brazilian soybean production at 147.35 mmt but will update that number today, and estimates are for that number to rise slightly to 147.89 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way as the entire ag complex appears to be trying to stabilize after selling off so sharply this week.
Ukrainian grain exports are expected to rise by over 1 mmt this marketing year with 1.13 mmt of grain already exported in the season that started July 1. This is a 62% increase over the 698k tons exported at this same time last year.
Russian FOB wheat prices are showing no signs of production issues after dry weather stretches’ and two spring frost events. The IGC said Russia’s FOB wheat prices fell $7 a metric ton in the week ending July 5, to $219 a metric ton, cheaper than all major competitors, except Ukraine.

Amanda Brill