TFM Morning Update 07-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s overall quiet session. After a warmer and drier stretch for the Corn Belt over the next seven days, temperatures are expected to turn more seasonal to end next week.
Rain totals to start the week in Corn Belt areas east of the Mississippi River from Hurricane Beryl were slightly less than expected but still highly beneficial ahead of pollination.
With the new crop corn carryout picture (~2.3 bb) nearly identical to early July of 2023, the funds have taken a drastically different position in the corn market here in 2024. The funds have likely added to their net short position of over 340,000 contracts to start this week compared to last year in July when they were holding about a 50,000 contract short position.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning once again. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl are exiting the eastern Midwest today. The upcoming week of weather looks warmer and drier for all compared to recent weeks.
Lack of new crop soybean exports sales on the books for the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year continue to pressure soybean futures. U.S. soybeans for export are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for export during the months of October through December currently, but buyers have yet to show up for the most part.
The broader U.S. economy will be watching CPI and PPI numbers later this week. Fed Chairman Powell spoke Tuesday to the Senate and will speak to the House Wednesday. His comments suggest that a rate cut could still occur this year.

Wheat is mostly lower once again this morning following corn and soybean prices. Spring wheat acres in the U.S. may be stressed in the upcoming week with hot and dry conditions, this should however assist in winter wheat harvest across the U.S.
US wheat export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are off to a strong start totaling just over 250 million bushels, up 49% from this time a year ago.
Russian FOB wheat prices are showing no signs of production issues after dry weather stretches’ and two spring frost events. The IGC said Russia’s FOB wheat prices fell $7 a metric ton in the week ending July 5, to $219 a metric ton, cheaper than all major competitors, except Ukraine.

Keegan Madigan