TFM Morning Update 06-27-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with the September contract having taken out yesterday’s low and making a new contract low. Prices have been pressured by a wet forecast despite some areas flooding.
US ethanol stocks fell by 0.8% to 23.423 mln bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report. Analysts were expecting 23.683 mln bbl, and plant production came in at 1.043 million barrels per day compared to the survey average of 1.065m.
The extended forecast is showing above average temperatures in the eastern Corn Belt, but the more significant heat will be further south. As long as rain remains in the forecast, it should offset some of the heat’s effects on the crop.

Soybeans are once again bull spread with the front month trading higher but the November contract continuing to slide as domestic crush demand remains stout but trade expects a large soybean crop this fall. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher.
The July contract currently holds a 20-cent premium to the August contract which further points to the need for cash soybeans in the market. The soybean carryout estimate also remains tight at 350 mb, so tomorrow’s report should shed some more light on supplies.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans are between 300k and 700k tons with an average estimate of 505k tons. This would be below last week’s sales but above those of a year ago.

The wheat complex is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading slightly higher in the July contract while KC trades slightly lower. Prices may be finding some support after the severe sell-off at the March lows earlier this year.
Ukrainian grain exports have increased by 3.9% so far this season which started on July 1 to 50.3 mmt. Of that number, 18.3 mmt were wheat which is up almost 10% year over year. Russian and Ukrainian wheat offers continue to take precedence in the export market with such cheap prices.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are in a range between 200k and 700k tons with the average guess at 463k. This would be below exports from a week ago but above last year.

Amanda Brill