TFM Morning Update 06-17-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 17, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after a poor close on Friday as the extended weather forecast shows good growing conditions in much of the Corn Belt. Both July and December corn have fallen below their 100-day moving averages.
The central Corn Belt is expected to receive rainfall starting this weekend which would follow a period of dry conditions. The northern regions, however, have continued to receive heavy rains over the past 3 days, and Minnesota and NW Iowa still have at least another 3 to 5 inches of rain in the forecast.
Friday’s CFTC report which was recorded as of June 11 showed that funds bought back 427 contracts of corn which left them net short 212,279 contracts. They have likely been more aggressive sellers since the 11th which is reflected in lower prices.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower as trade sees the weather as bearish despite the fact that August weather will likely be the determining factor for this crop. Basis has begun to improve, and processing margins have increased as well. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and traders are expecting to see last week’s initial good to excellent rating of 72% to fall slightly.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net sellers as of June 11 adding 16,139 contracts to their net short position and bringing it to 75,880 contracts.

All three classes of wheat are trading lower this morning and are led by Chicago wheat. European wheat prices have fallen sharply over the past week which has had an affect on US futures, but pressure has also come from the ongoing US harvest that is much larger than last year’s.
July Chicago wheat futures are now $1.24 off their May highs which were mainly caused by concerns that Russia’s wheat production would be cut significantly, but trade has begun to shrug off the concerns and prices have fallen in accordance.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 13,432 contracts of wheat as of June 11 which leaves them net short 45,116 contracts. Funds are less short than they were last year at this time and are generally within the range of the 5-year average at this time.

Amanda Brill