TFM Morning Update 05-31-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after falling for three consecutive days as a result of low export demand and the realization that despite the wet weather, the crop is planted at a pace ahead of the 5-year average.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 988k tons. This would compare with 1.216k tons a week ago, and it is likely that most of the business went to Mexico.
In Yesterday’s US Department of Energy’s weekly report, it was found that ethanol stocks fell by 4.2% in the US to 23.207 million bb while analysts were expecting 24.052. Plant production was at 1.068m b/d vs the survey average of 1.031m.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning in a rebound from this past week’s slide. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well, and soybeans remain above support at the 100-day moving average.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released its weekly crop estimates report which shows them pegging production at 50.5 mmt which is lower than the USDA’s guess but much higher than last year’s 21.0 mmt. The crop is reportedly 86% harvested which compares to 77.9% last week.
Soybean crush is expected to be reported at 175.3 million bushels for April which would be a 6.2% drop from a year ago according to Bloomberg. This compares to 187 mb in April of last year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning led by KC wheat. Wheat is now over 30 cents off its highs from Monday as futures became technically overbought and rains were forecast in Russia.
In Argentina, farmers are getting ready to begin planting wheat in better than expected conditions. The good soil moisture levels and improving profit margins could cause farmers to increase wheat acreage this year.
Estimates for Russian wheat production are between 84 and 85 mmt, but the number could turn out lower depending on the extent of the frost damage. As it stands, large growing areas were damaged.

Amanda Brill