TFM Morning Update 05-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning which has put the July contract back above the 100-day moving average. Yesterday, that average acted as support when prices slipped. With futures overbought yesterday and the USDA report coming up tomorrow, some farmer selling and fund positioning were likely taking place.
Estimates for tomorrow’s report show the 23/24 ending stocks to fall by 28 mb to 2.094 bb, and we will also get a look at estimates for the 24/25 crop which are expected around 2.282 bb. Argentina and Brazil’s corn crops are both expected to be revised lower.
Delays in planting progress, especially in the eastern Corn Belt have been supportive. Last week’s delays have put progress behind the 5-year average pace, and this week of more delays will likely show that the US is further behind when the crop progress is released this coming Monday.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are bull spread with the majority of gains in the nearby months. All soybean contracts remain firmly above their 100-day moving averages and are in upward trends. Soybean meal is higher this morning while soybean oil is slightly lower.
The average trade guess for 23/24 US soybean ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report remains at 341 million bushels, mostly unchanged from the 340 mb in the April report. The US 24/25 new crop soybean carry out is estimated to come in around 439 mb, a nearly 100 mb increase from this year, using a 52 bpa yield.
In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way higher. Chicago and KC wheat are trading firmly above their 200-day averages for the first time since July of last year. Support is coming from poor global weather.
Russia, who is easily the worlds number one provider of wheat, has been hit by frosts over the weekend which have reportedly done more damage to the crop than initially thought. Analysts are reporting that due to the frost, this year’s production will be “well below” last year’s numbers.
For tomorrow’s WASDE report, analysts are expecting that the 23/24 ending stocks will fall slightly, that new crop wheat will be estimated at 1.895 billion bushels for all wheat, and that world wheat stocks will fall slightly.

Amanda Brill