TFM Morning Update 04-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading about a penny lower this morning and is likely being pressured by lower wheat, but the fears and unknowns of the impact of the avian flu is likely still pressuring the corn complex as it could slightly effect feed demand, especially if it becomes prominent in chickens.
Yesterday, export inspections were released and were strong with 55.9 mb inspected which brings the pace up 35% from last year. Inspections were large for Mexico and a good amount were headed to China as well.
In the US, corn plantings have begun and are 3% complete which is slightly above the 5-year average. Forecasts are also favorable for planting with warm conditions expected over the next two weeks.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have remained in a tight range over the past week with multiple closes between the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is just a bit higher.
Brazil’s soybean harvest was estimated at 78% complete yesterday by AgRural. This would be below last year’s pace of 82% as some soybeans were planted late, and some work has been delayed due to rain. AgResource has estimated Brazil’s total soybean production at 145.46 mmt, far below the USDA’s estimate.
Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans were soft again which has become the norm with Brazilian offers cheaper. 17.8 mb of soybeans were inspected for export which brings total inspections down 19% from last year.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are dragging both corn and soybeans down as well. Over the past few weeks, wheat has trended higher as there has been a rally in global wheat prices.
In India, wheat production is expected to rise to 105.8 mmt in 23/24 from 102.9 mmt the previous year due to increased planted acreage and better yields. India will need to buy 31 mmt of this crop for its state reserves.
Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat were stronger than usual with 18.3 mb inspected which met the 18.2 mb needed each week. Some of that wheat is headed to China which is supportive.

Amanda Brill