TFM Morning Update 03-13-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day, rebounding after yesterday’s sharp decline as traders look for value at lower price levels. Weather concerns in Brazil and continued strong export demand are helping to provide support in early trade.
A recent shift to warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks across much of Brazil’s second-crop corn regions is likely adding some weather premium back into the market. With Brazil’s ending stocks projected to be the lowest since 2002, there is little room for a production issue, keeping traders focused on weather developments.
Argentina’s Rosario Exchange lowered its corn production estimate from 46 mmt to 44.5 mmt on Wednesday, citing recent adverse weather conditions. The Argentine corn harvest is progressing steadily and is expected to reach 11% to 12% completion in the coming week.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, attempting to rebound after four consecutive lower closes. The recent slide has been fueled by trade uncertainty and pressure from the advancing Brazilian harvest.
Despite recent weakness, soybean futures continue to find solid support around the $10 level. This psychological threshold has acted as a magnet for front-month futures since September, with prices spending very little time trading significantly above or below it.
Soybeans remain under pressure as the rapidly advancing Brazilian harvest continues to add supply to the global market. As of early this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest was 61% complete, with the top-producing state of Mato Grosso nearing 92% completion. Additionally, news that the EU will impose a 25% tariff on a range of U.S. products in response to the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum has added another layer of uncertainty to trade flows, further weighing on the soybean market.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, following the strength in French wheat futures, which gapped higher on Thursday. Ongoing concerns about dry conditions in key growing regions and renewed global demand are providing support to the market.
A warm and dry outlook for the U.S. Plains and much of the Black Sea region over the next two weeks is injecting some weather premium back into wheat futures. With winter wheat emerging from dormancy, concerns over soil moisture deficits and potential stress on the crop are supporting prices.
With U.S. wheat offers remaining competitively priced on the global market and the U.S. dollar recently hitting its lowest level since November, export prospects are looking more favorable. A weaker dollar enhances the attractiveness of U.S. wheat for international buyers, potentially providing much-needed support to prices.

Keegan Madigan