TFM Morning Update 02-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as it continues its downward slide. Although prices traded slightly higher last night, this morning, March corn made a new contract low. Any small rallies lately have been met with sellers.
Other than the heavy fund selling, a bearish component to the market has been basis contracts coming due where producers have either had to roll or make the sale with many instances of producers being forced to sell.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 26,391 contracts bringing them to a net short position of 340,732 contracts which is a new all-time record short position.

Soybeans, along with corn, were higher last night but are currently at new contract lows in the March contract. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower. The total combined short position that the funds hold in the entire soy complex is the second largest in history.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 38.03% complete which compares with 34.51% the previous year. With the ongoing harvest and falling prices, Brazil is now exporting soybeans to the US according to shipping data.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,177 contracts of soybeans last week leaving them short 136,677 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since 2019.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning led by losses in Chicago wheat. While wheat is off its contract lows, it is only off by 10 cents but has not faced the extent of selling pressure that corn and soybeans have.
Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister has said that over 160 tons of Ukrainian grain were destroyed in Poland in large scale protests by farmers who are against the import of wheat from Ukraine as it has driven their domestic prices to very low levels.
As of last Tuesday, non-commercials sold 12,852 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 68,524 contracts, but funds are nowhere near record short in wheat like they are in corn and soybeans.

Amanda Brill