TFM Morning Update 02-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher ahead of today’s USDA report which shouldn’t hold many huge surprises but could see some adjustments to South American production.
CONAB has released its latest estimates of Brazilian corn production with 113.696 mmt expected. This is below the USDA’s last guess, 13.8% lower than last year, and acres planted down by 8.2%.
Estimates for today’s report have US ending stocks falling slightly, world ending stocks decreasing, Brazilian production falling, but Argentinian production increasing slightly.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report saw ethanol stocks rise by 2.1% to 24.779m bbl, and plant production at 1.033m b/d which was above expectations.

Soybeans are modestly higher to start the day as traders wait to see what the USDA releases. Soybean meal is slightly lower this morning while soybean oil is higher.
CONAB released its estimates for Brazilian soybean production and sees the number at 149.40 mmt, below the USDA’s estimate. This would be a decline of 3.4% from last year despite an increase in acreage of 2.3%.
US ending stocks are expected to rise slightly in today’s WASDE, exports are expected to be lowered, world ending stocks to fall slightly, Argentinian beans to increase, and Brazilian bean production to fall.
Following a hot and dry spell in Argentina that lasted over a week, rainfall is now expected over the next few days in critical growing areas which should bring relief.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago posting the largest losses as wheat maintains a tight trading range.
Today’s WASDE report should hold few surprises for wheat as US and world ending stocks are not expected to change, but US exports could increase slightly.
US ending stocks for wheat are still pegged at the second tightest in the last decade, wheat prices have been unable to find reason to rally but appear to be building support near current prices.
Long-term moisture deficits still remain in portions of the US Plains but a continued active pattern should help to gradually ease those deficits.

Amanda Brill