TFM Morning Update 02-06-2024

CORN

March corn ended the day unchanged yesterday and this morning is trading slightly higher as non-commercials position themselves ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were on the lowest end of expectations at 24.6 mb but overall, exports are still 30% above last year’s pace.
Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
Weather has improved in Brazil, and second crop corn planting is underway with 27% complete in the central region which compares to 11% the previous week.

Soybeans finished the day higher yesterday and are higher again this morning following yesterday’s solid export inspections report.
So far this morning, soybean meal is lower which could pressure beans but soybean oil is higher with higher crude oil. Crush margins have improved slightly and are attractive to processors.
Yesterday’s export inspections were impressive at 52.4 mb with 35.2 mb of that number headed to China. The bearish aspect is that total inspections are still down 24% from last year at this time.
The demand for soybean oil in Brazil is expected to rise significantly this year with a 27.5% increase in order to produce more biodiesel. They are expected to crush 7.4 mmt.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher, KC lower, and Minneapolis unchanged despite higher prices in both corn and soybeans.
With little fresh news in the wheat complex, futures are struggling to maintain their recent gains and are sliding with a lack of significant export sales.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
Shipments of wheat out of Brazil are moving at a good pace with 812.18 thousand tons wheat in January.

Amanda Brill