TFM Morning Update 01-30-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s selloff, and the March contract took out the low from the 18th making a new contract low.
Funds were estimated to sell about 4,500 contracts of corn yesterday as bearish sentiment continues, and they are nearing a record large short position.
The world’s largest corn ethanol producer, Poet, is working with another company that is proposing a large carbon capture and storage project with the goal of cutting biofuel emissions and to capture demand for sustainable aviation fuel.
There has been some friendly news for corn with higher crude oil prices supportive to ethanol and larger hog production supportive of feed demand, but funds continue to sell.

Soybeans are trading only slightly lower this morning after a large selloff yesterday. Soybean meal is slightly higher again today while soybean oil is lower.
As of January 25, Brazil is reportedly 11% complete with harvest which compares to 6% the previous week and 5% the year prior. Corn planting is beginning along with harvest.
Shipping has temporarily halted on the Parana River in Brazil after a carrier crashed into a bridge, and this could impact the movement of soybeans as harvest is underway.
It has been reported on social media that Brazilian soybeans are being imported into the US as they now have cheaper offers as harvest continues.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as low export demand continues to weigh on prices. Concerns about the Chinese economy and its demand have not helped wheat.
Latvia’s government is looking to ban imports of grain from Russia and Belarus in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices. A previous attempt to do this was unsuccessful.
In Argentina, the wheat harvest is reportedly finished with total production estimated at 15.1 mmt. Last season, production was pegged at 12.2 mmt.
Russian wheat prices have fallen again due to an increase in supply in the Black Sea region, but exports have risen. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat was down $3 per metric ton from the previous week.

Amanda Brill