TFM Morning Update 01-24-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning with the March contract giving back all of yesterday’s gains so far. Yesterday afternoon, Argentina reported it would lower its export duties on all grains to relieve the agricultural sector which is pressuring all grains.
JFK Jr. has proposed a ban on high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) for human consumption—a move that could impact the U.S. corn market, which uses approximately 1.3–1.4 billion bushels of corn annually for HFCS production.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,067k tons. This would compare to 1,025k a week ago and 992k a year ago.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning giving back all of yesterday’s gains and then some following Argentina’s announcement that they would lower export duties on grains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
President Trump is eyeing February 1 to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The commodities market is bracing for a rollercoaster ride as headlines flip between optimism and tension on the tariff front.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 600k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,067k tons. This would compare to last week’s 569k and 561k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. The move lower in grains comes despite a move lower in the dollar which tends to have an inverse relationship.
While wheat continues to lag behind corn and soybeans, bulls point to the near-record gap between managed money’s net short position in wheat and its net long position in corn.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons. This would compare to 522k a week ago and 510k a year ago.

Amanda Brill