TFM Morning Update 01-16-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after meeting resistance over the past two days at the $4.80 level in the March contract. Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed production below the average trade estimate but still strong.
In southern Brazil, the harvest of the first-crop corn and the planting of the second-crop safrinha corn have begun. The state of Paraná reported that 1% of the first-crop corn has been harvested, and 2% of the safrinha corn has been planted. Despite some drier areas, first-crop yields are generally expected to be good.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 500k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 800k. This would compare to 445k last week and 1,271k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower to start the day as March futures fall from their Monday high of $10.64. While US ending stocks have tightened, world stocks are still quite large. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Expectations for Brazil’s soybean crop have been lowered slightly, with one analyst reducing their estimate by 1 million tons to 170 million. Rainfall over the past week favored northern and eastern Brazil, while southern Brazil experienced mostly dry conditions. The forecast shows favorable rain prospects for northern Brazil, with increased chances of rainfall in southern Brazil later this week and into next week.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 900k tons with an average guess of 575k tons. This would compare to 289k last week and 783k a year ago at this time.

Wheat is trading lower this morning as futures struggle to rally significantly off their contract lows and primarily stay in rangebound trade. The higher dollar has kept prices suppressed.
The wheat market continues to underperform compared to corn and soybeans, with the U.S. dollar remaining a significant headwind for wheat prices. Despite a 70-basis-point decline yesterday, the dollar index is still up 9% from its September low of 99.86.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 400k tons with an average guess of 275k tons. This would compare to 111k last week and 708k a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill