TFM Morning Update 01-14-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as trade appears to cool off after March futures gained 20 cents in just two days following the WASDE report. Futures have become overbought, and farmer selling has likely accelerated.
Yesterday’s corn inspections number was strong at 56.7 mb, but the USDA reduced export demand by 25 mb on Friday citing lower supplies. Exports could be further reduced this year due to lower demand depending on President Trump’s tariffs.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 24,540 contracts of corn as of January 7 which left them net long 253,346 contracts. They are likely closer to 300,000 net long contracts after the last two trading days.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as March futures cool off from a 54-cent rally over the past two days which was driven by a 1 bpa reduction in yield in the US and drier forecasted conditions in Argentina.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well, but soybean oil in particular has rallied sharply since the beginning of the year as the potential for removing foreign used cooking oil from renewable diesel production lends support.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 13,835 contracts of soybeans as of January 7 which reduced their net short position to 28,612 contracts. Funds are estimated to have bought back over 27,000 contracts in just the last two days which would likely establish them with a new net long position.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. The dollar index rose above 100 yesterday for the first time since November 2022 which has likely been a big factor in wheats new contract lows.
Yesterday’s inspections report saw 10.6 mb of wheat inspected for export as of January 9. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 478 mb which is up 25% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating exports at 20% higher than the previous year.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 1,875 contracts which left them net short 88,637 contracts. They bought back 2,003 contracts of KC wheat which reduced their net short position to 31,858 contracts.

Amanda Brill