TFM Morning Update 01-13-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following Friday’s very bullish USDA report, but drier weather in Argentina and diminishing soil moisture is lending support today as well. March futures are now at their highest level since June 2024.
The bullish surprise in last week’s WASDE report was the big reduction in the national yield. Initially, analysts were expecting yield to fall by 0.4 bpa, but the USDA lowered yields by nearly 4 bpa which caused ending stocks to fall to 1.54 bb.
The CFTC report will not be released until later today, but over the past 5 trading days, funds have bought an estimated 53,500 contracts of corn which would leave them with a near record net long position.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning along with corn and wheat as Friday’s USDA report was also bullish for soybeans, and the dryness in Argentina is affecting prices as well. Soybean meal is higher on the drier forecast while soybean oil is higher as well.
Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report.
Over the past 5 trading days, funds have bought back an estimated 27,000 contracts of soybeans which would put their net position close to being slightly net long.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way. Although Friday’s report was not particularly bullish for wheat, there seems to be general optimism in the grain complex, and wheat is rebounding off Friday’s contract low.
Last week’s WASDE report saw US wheat ending stocks very slightly increased while US grain stocks were higher as a result of increased seedings. World wheat ending stocks were increased as well.
Over the past 5 trading days, funds bought back an estimated 7,500 contracts of wheat. This would still leave them with a net short position as fundamentals in wheat have been less friendly than in other grains.

Amanda Brill