TFM Morning Update 01-02-2025

CORN

Corn ended the last day of 2024 with a strong close, and left futures with a strong possibility to continue moving higher now that March futures have taken out the 200-day moving average which had been resisitance.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 81% of the country’s corn crop was planted, but 20% is tasseling and 12% is silking. The drier 10-day forecast will likely support prices.
Monday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn as of December 24. They bought 1,532 contracts which left them net long 160,947 contracts.

Soybeans closed on Tuesday sharply higher and took out the 50-day moving average which had been resistance. New resistance for March futures is near the 100-day at $10.20.
The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues.
On December 31 there were 380 deliveries against January soybeans for a total of 489 deliveries. There have been 1,764 deliveries against January bean meal and 617 deliveries against January soybean oil.

All three wheat classes ended the day higher on New Year’s Eve as concerns come to the forefront that Russia may have production issues that could limit the amount of wheat they can export.
Russian wheat values have increased, with consultancy IKAR reporting that offers have increased by $3/mt in the past week to $237/mt. Russian wheat exports are expected to fall as production estimates shrink.
US wheat exports have improved from last year and are running between 25 and 30% above last year’s pace due to cheap US prices and production issues in other wheat growing countries.

Amanda Brill