CORN

• The corn market is currently trading near the top end of its 6 ½ cent range as it attempts to negate the bearish reversal that was posted yesterday. Since Tuesday December corn has found support below the market between the 10 and 20-day moving averages, providing a potential base for further gains.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange anticipates that Argentine corn planting will cover 6.3 million hectares for the 24/25 season, with a projected harvest of 47 million metric tons. However, they warned that these figures may be revised downward if crucial areas don’t receive rainfall in the coming weeks.
• Managed funds actively covered short positions in the corn market yesterday, buying back an estimated 7,000 net short contracts. This brings their estimated net short position to around 110,000 corn futures contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later today, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
• USDA data released yesterday showed weak weekly corn export sales for the week ending September 19, totaling only 535,000 metric tons. This figure falls short of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual projections. Currently, total export sales are at 25% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 28% by this time of year.
• On Monday, the USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey suggests that US corn stocks as of September 1 are expected to reach 1.846 billion bushels, a 36% increase from the previous year’s 1.360 billion bushels.

SOYBEANS

• Soybeans are currently trading a little higher this morning, near the top end of their range with support from sharply higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is trading lower, but well off its lows, as it follows through on yesterday’s bearish key reversal.
• This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for the 24/25 marketing year.
• For the week ending September 19, weekly soybean export sales slightly exceeded expectations, totaling 1.575 million metric tons. Currently, total commitments are at 35% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 42% for this period.
• Managed funds were active sellers in the soybean market yesterday, offloading an estimated 3,000 contracts. This positions managed funds with an estimated net short of about 91,000 soybean futures contracts. The CFTC will provide updated positions later today, reflecting data as of Tuesday, September 24.
• The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, set for release on Monday, has the potential to reveal unexpected figures. Market expectations place soybean stocks at 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from the 264 million bushels reported in September 2023.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex continues to trade lower across all three classes at midday, extending yesterday’s losses as traders adjust their positions ahead of the weekend, month-end, and Monday’s release of the Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains report.
• Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has revised its 24/25 grain production forecast down to 124.5 million metric tons from 125 million metric tons. This includes 81.8 mmt of wheat, reduced from the previous estimate of 82.2 mmt. Despite this adjustment, the agency is maintaining its wheat export forecast of 44 mmt for the 24/25 season.
• Weekly wheat export sales, reported for the week ending September 19, fell significantly short of expectations at 159,000 metric tons—roughly half of the weekly volume needed to meet the USDA’s export goals. Nevertheless, total sales are slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace for this time of year.
• Managed funds sold an estimated 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts yesterday, bringing their short position to around 19,000 contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later this afternoon, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
• The USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports are scheduled for release on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, US wheat stocks as of September 1 are projected to be 1.992 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year. Wheat production for 24/25 is estimated at 1.983 billion bushels.

Author

Scott Masters