TFM Midday Update 8-6-2024

CORN

Corn is trading mixed at midday after yesterday’s stock market crash may have brought buyers into the oversold grain markets, which ended the day higher. At this point, stocks are rebounding, which likely has shifted focus back to crop ratings and weather.
Corn prices are not significantly responding to yesterday’s Crop Progress report, in which the good to excellent rating slipped by one point to 67%. 88% of the crop is silking, compared to 77% last week and 46% of the crop is in the dough stage, compared to last week’s 30%. 7% of the crop is dented, versus the 5-year average of 5%.
Last week, StoneX raised their corn yield estimate, and now Ag Resource has increased their estimate for corn yields to 180.5 bpa, which would be a record. They are also estimating production at 14.883 billion bushels which would be below the last USDA estimate. This could likely be attributed to the wet conditions earlier this season.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday after yesterday’s recovery and Crop Progress report, which showed conditions improving despite weather which has been slightly drier this past week in some areas. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed soybean ratings improving by 1 point to 68% good to excellent despite the recent dryness. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming, versus 77% last week.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen export demand pick up. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.

All three wheat classes are now trading higher after reversing from earlier morning lows, with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Since last Friday when the stock market began to drop, the US Dollar fell sharply as well, which makes US wheat more competitive globally and may be giving prices some support.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings unchanged at 74% and the crop 6% harvested, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 9%. 97% of the spring wheat crop is headed. In winter wheat, 88% of the crop is harvested, compared to 82% last week and the 5-year average of 86%.
In the Black Sea region, heat, dryness, and in some areas, frost, is damaging the crop and has lead to lower production. The EU is expecting lower production as well, and between the two, anywhere from 20 to 24 mmt of wheat could be lost.

Amanda Brill