TFM Midday Update 7-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today as weather models have turned slightly less hot over the next week. Temperatures were forecast to exceed 100 degrees in parts of the Midwest over the next week but are now expected in the 90’s which should further support growing conditions.
Despite today’s lower prices, futures are still on track for a weekly gain. December corn futures are up 8 ½ cents on the week at the time of writing, but at one point were up as much as 18 cents. Funds have been buying back a portion of their short position but may be taking this opportunity to sell the rally.
Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 36,000 contracts of corn in a departure from their selling which had brought them to a new record net short position.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower at midday with pressure from an improved weather forecast along with selling by both funds and producers. Soybean meal is giving back some of its gains from yesterday, but both soybeans and soybean meal are still higher on the week. Soybean oil is trading lower.
Yesterday, the USDA reported a sale of 246,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. This followed last week’s sale of 510,000 mt and total new crop soybean sales were over 830,000 mt last week. 723,000 mt of that amount were to unknown destinations which were potentially China.
In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the past 5 days after they reached a new record net short position previously. They were likely covering some of these shorts ahead of the key August time frame with a potentially drier forecast in some areas.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. Pressure in spring wheat has come from better-than-expected yields found on the wheat tour, and pressure in winter wheat is coming from the ongoing harvest.
In spring wheat, the entire crop was rated 77% good to excellent as of last Sunday. The Dakotas and Minnesota had the best ratings at over 80% good to excellent. On the other hand, the Canadian Prairies have been hot and dry with wildfires damaging large areas.
Yesterday, the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour was finished with the final 3-day total weighted average all-wheat yield estimate at a record high 53.8 bpa. The average spring wheat yield was estimated at 54.5 bpa. Last year, that number was 47.4 bpa.

Amanda Brill