TFM Midday Update 7-23-2024

CORN

According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, corn conditions fell 1% to 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 61% of the crop is silking and 17% is in the dough stage.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts look warmer and drier for the US Corn Belt. This may be lending some support to futures prices.
Through the month of May, US ethanol exports were a record, and ethanol production was 5% above last year. Along with good demand, this may cause the USDA to increase exports and corn grind for ethanol on the next WASDE report.

According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, soybean conditions held steady at 68% good to excellent, with 65% of the crop blooming and 29% setting pods.
News outlets have reported that China cut interest rates on Monday in an effort to boost their economy. This may be a factor in this week’s rally so far, with anticipation that this could lead to more Chinese demand for US commodities.
Yesterday November soybeans closed well above the 10-day moving average for the first time since July 5. Today, they appear to have encountered resistance at the 21-day moving average (1084), a significant technical level that they haven’t closed above since May 28.
According to China’s customs data, they imported 11.1 mmt of soybeans in June, with Brazil fulfilling 9.7 mmt of that total, and the US only responsible for 1.3 mmt of those imports.

According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is now 76% harvested, up 5% from last week. The spring wheat crop condition held steady at 77% good to excellent, with 89% of that crop is headed.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower this morning following the sharp gains over the past couple of sessions. This may offer resistance to the US wheat market.
Hot and dry conditions in the US northern Plains as well as the Canadian prairies may begin to cause concern for spring wheat yields and could keep Minneapolis futures supported.
SovEcon is reported to have increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 3 mmt to 130.5 mmt. However, total wheat production was only raised 0.1 mmt to 84.3 mmt (for reference the USDA is at 83 mmt).

Brandon Doherty