TFM Midday Update 6-27-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday but is relatively quiet ahead of tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Report. The wet forecast and expectation of a large number of corn acres are pressuring prices lower.
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, and estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 21.3 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. This was within expectations, and last week’s export shipments of 46.3 mb were above the 37.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months trading lower but deferred contracts slightly higher in a reversal from the usual bull spreading action. Trade may be anticipating a lower soybean planted acreage number released tomorrow.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

All three wheat classes are trading higher in the July contracts with Chicago wheat leading the way followed by Minneapolis wheat. KC wheat is higher but is facing some harvest pressure. Today’s move higher is likely technical as prices have become extremely oversold.
Estimates for Friday’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 million of those winter wheat and 11.34 million spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of wheat export sales by 24.5 mb for 24/25 which was actually on the higher end of trade expectations. Export shipments of 11.9 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Brazil.

Amanda Brill