TFM Midday Update 6-11-2024

CORN

According to the USDA, corn is 95% planted and 85% emerged. Additionally, 74% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% from last week, but up from 61% a year ago.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout comes in at 1.984 bb versus 2.022 bb in May. For 24/25, the estimate is 2.048 bb versus 2.102 bb in May. Additionally, Argentina’s corn production is expected to be reduced to 51.2 mmt from 53.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s corn production is also expected to be reduced to 121.0 mmt from 122.0 mmt last month.
Temperatures over the next two weeks are expected to be above normal for much of the US corn belt. In addition, rains are expected to be less than normal, except for northwestern areas.

According to the USDA, soybeans are 87% planted and 70% emerged. Additionally, 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, compared with 59% a year ago.
Private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year in a flash sale this morning.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout comes in at 348 mb versus 340 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 455 mb versus 445 mb in May. Argentina’s soybean production is also expected to be slightly reduced to 49.8 mmt from 50.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s soybean production is expected to see a bigger reduction to 151.8 mmt from 154.0 mmt last month.

According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is rated 47% good to excellent, down 2% from last week, but above 38% last year. Additionally, 12% of the crop is harvested, which is double the average pace of 6%.
The USDA reported that the spring wheat crop is 98% planted, 2% above the average pace. Additionally, 87% of the crop is emerged, and 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent. This is a 2% decline from last week but remains above the 60% rating a year ago.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout comes in at 690 mb versus 688 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 782 mb versus 766 in May.

Brandon Doherty