TFM Midday Update 5-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today and has slipped from its earlier morning highs which saw futures up as much as 4 cents. If this price action continues, corn would close lower for the fourth consecutive day and would post a weekly loss of over 10 cents, but futures, so far, have found support at the 100-day moving average.
Nutrien has stated that they expect US corn acreage to be lower than the USDA’s estimate of 90 million acres and are expecting a number closer to 87 million acres as they see a shift from corn to soybeans and cotton.
In France, corn plantings are estimated at 72% complete which is up from 54% the previous week but still down from the 5-year average of 91% for this time of year.

Soybeans are trading higher near midday but like corn, have slipped from their earlier morning highs. Soybean meal has reversed lower while soybean oil remains higher. While some rains are still falling in the eastern Corn Belt, planting progress seems to have improved.
In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.
There are concerns in the bean complex over the recent tariffs imposed by the US on China that may cause the country to import fewer soybeans than they were. So far, China has purchased no new crop soybeans from the US.

All three wheat classes have reversed lower from this morning as the grain complex in general weakens. Prices have steadily slipped since the year’s highs were posted on Wednesday, and now futures are situated for a slight loss on the week.
Russia has said that the country has lost 830,000 hectares or over 20 million acres of sowing due to the frosts. This represents about 1% of the total growing area. These weather issues in Russia have likely been responsible for the recent rally.
Ukrainian exports of grain have increased by 0.5% year over year for this season at 44.2 mmt and 16.6 mmt of that amount being wheat. This is a 10% increase year over year.

Amanda Brill