TFM Midday Update 5-15-2024

CORN

Corn has backed off from its earlier morning highs and is now trading slightly lower despite a wet 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt that could cause further planting delays.
Today’s CPI report said that the consumer price index rose by 0.3% last month after increasing by 0.4% in both February and March. While inflation increased, it rose by less than expected. The stock market reacted favorably, and the dollar index fell.
This morning, forecasts are pointing to three larger rain systems that are expected to move through the Corn Belt over the next 10 days. Corn plantings are already 11% behind a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading higher today but along with corn and wheat have slipped from this morning’s highs. Planting delays remain a concern, and both soybean meal and oil are currently higher and supporting soybean futures.
Yesterday, news of new tariffs on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EV’s was released. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.
This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 metric tons are for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 60,000 are for the 24/25 marketing year.

All three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday, likely on profit taking after the recent strong rally.
The USDA kept winter wheat condition unchanged at 50% good to excellent in yesterday’s crop progress report. Additionally, they said that 61% of the spring wheat crop is planted, which compares to 35% last year and 48% average.
There are still weather concerns globally that may affect wheat, including the freezing temperatures in Russia that may damage their crops. Dryness also persists in the Black Sea region, adding to concerns. Additionally, western Europe is seeing too much wet weather that is degrading their wheat conditions.

Amanda Brill