TFM Midday Update 4-29-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday with pressure from the wheat market which is retreating from last week’s gains. July corn is trading back at its 50-day moving average which could now act as support following last week’s break higher.
Over the weekend, heavy rains fell throughout the Corn Belt with some areas receiving up to 4 inches. The 2-week forecast is also showing further rains which may impact planting progress and cause delays but will be beneficial in some areas for soil moisture.
Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and estimates are that 30 to 32% of planting will have been completed by Sunday. The western regions may be further ahead as they have received less rain in general.

Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off from their highs earlier this morning. Soybean meal remains trading higher and is supporting bean futures, but soybean oil futures have slipping significantly and are now following palm oil lower.
Friday’s CFTC report showed the funds buying back parts of their short position in soybeans which has left them net short 149,000 contracts. In soybean meal, funds have exited their net short position completely and now hold a net long position of 20,000 contracts.
Today’s crop progress report is expected to show that between 19 and 21% of the soybean crop is planted as of Sunday, and soybeans will face a similar issue to corn in that the next two weeks is forecast to be rainy

Wheat is mixed with Chicago trading sharply lower, KC near unchanged to slightly lower, and Minneapolis higher. Last week saw July Chicago wheat gain over 55 cents which likely attracted selling pressure from producers and the funds.
In Russia, there are concerns of drought conditions next month which could impact total production and is likely behind the large amount of short covering last week. While there may be concerns over new crop, Russia still holds a large supply of old crop wheat.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 20,219 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 76,184 contracts.

Amanda Brill