TFM Midday Update 4-21-2023

CORN

May corn down 5 @ 6.59
As of writing, May corn is still holding just above the 100 day moving average.
On the 8-14 day forecast, most of the Midwest looks dry which should help with getting the corn crop planted.
Central Brazil is getting rains which should help their safrinha crop.
Total corn export commitments are down 33% from last year.
This week’s export sales data was poor, but ethanol demand is on the rise.

May soybeans down 8 @ 14.89
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their Argentina soybean crop estimate to 22.5 mmt (this is the lowest level in 24 years).
Soybeans may be declining due to the big Brazil crop and the fact that farmers there are selling because they don’t have enough storage domestically.
There is talk that Ukraine will plant more oilseeds, which is offering resistance to global vegetable oil markets.
May soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $16.14 per bushel.

May Chi wheat down 4 @ 6.64, May KC down 8 @ 8.32, & May MNPLS down 3 @ 8.53
Rains are in the forecast next week for most of the US HRW wheat belt. It likely won’t be a drought buster, but the moisture is welcomed.
Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine export corridor; Russian and UN officials will reportedly meet to discuss this next week.
The US northern plains are again receiving snow and cold temperatures, sure to delay spring wheat planting.
Paris milling wheat futures continue to trend lower, pressuring the US wheat markets.

Jun LC down 0.475 @ 163.875 & May FC down 0.575 @ 211.775
Cash trade this week has been steady to $2 lower.
Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon.
Pre-report estimates: 94.8% on feed, 95.2% placements, 98.9% marketed.
Cattle weights are below last year, indicating they are being pulled ahead and supplies will continue to tighten.
Choice cuts up 1.07 and select down 2.72.
Cattle slaughter projected at 118K.
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/20: down 2.32 @ 203.91.

May hogs up 0.675 @ 77.500 & May pork cutout UNCH @ 82.700
African swine fever in China may be pushing more pork into their domestic market. This may be offering weakness to the US for now, but in the long term could be viewed as supportive.
Cutouts were higher yesterday, which may be lending some support to futures today.
Packers remain less aggressive, as they can obtain hogs without much trouble.
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.75.
Hog slaughter projected at 475K.
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/21: down 0.16 @ 71.41.

Brandon Doherty