TFM Midday Update 3-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher at midday but has been tightly rangebound throughout the past week with a lack of fresh news. Yesterday’s export inspections were supportive, but the trade will look to next week’s acreage report for potential adjustments.
In the US, rains are forecast through the eastern Plains and Midwest in areas where soil moisture levels are low. In South America, weather has remained favorable with just central Brazil slightly too dry.
In next Thursday’s stocks and seedings report, the USDA is expected to report the largest corn stocks since 2019. Corn acres are expected to be lower than last year, and between 91 to 93 million acres as producers lean towards planting more soybean acres.

Soybeans have rebounded off this morning’s lows and are near the upper end of their range, with the deferred contracts gaining on the nearby. May soybeans have been unable to close above their 50-day moving average but remain 55 cents off their February low.
Soybean oil is lower again today and is being pressured by palm oil despite its sharp rally over the past few weeks. Soybean meal is being pressured by cheaper Argentinian offers, and with both soy products lower, crush margins have fallen.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is now over 63% complete and key growing state Mato Grosso is 96% complete. CONAB is estimating Brazilian soybean production much lower than the USDA at 146 mmt compared to 156 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today with support from Paris milling wheat which has been higher for seven out of the past nine days. Winter wheat crop ratings were updated which could be adding support to KC wheat.
For the week ending March 17, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.
Taiwan is said to have purchased 97,950 mt of US wheat in their tender, and Algeria is reportedly tendering for 50,000 mt of soft wheat. South Korea also purchased 125,000 mt of feed wheat, which was likely sourced from the US.

Amanda Brill