TFM Midday Update 3-15-2024

CORN

The USDA reported sales of 125,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
The US corn export commitments are running 27% ahead of last year, slightly above the USDA’s estimate of 26%. Mexico has been buying a record amount of corn, up 32% from last year, whereas Chinese purchases are down 60%.
Reportedly, farmers in Brazil are not selling much corn, as drier weather is beginning to stress the crop. In addition, corn futures in Brazil are making new highs relative to the US.
Ukraine is said to be the cheapest world origin for corn. US corn is around $194 per mt, while Ukraine is nearly twenty dollars cheaper at $175 per mt.

Brazilian farmers are said to be selling soybeans at a steep discount to US offers. US beans are around $464 per mt, while Brazil is closer to $415 per mt. Soybean meal is also cheaper in both Brazil and Argentina versus the US.
The US soybean meal export commitment is up 19% versus the USDA’s estimate of an 8% increase. However, meal sales may begin to fall as we get closer to the completion of Argentina’s harvest.
Palm oil futures again made a new contract high, which is offering support to soybean oil and soybeans.
Today, traders will receive the February NOPA crush report, which is expected to be a February record around 178 mb.

Yesterday’s PPI data showed inflation was more significant than anticipated. This had the US Dollar up sharply and likely indicates that the Fed may postpone any rate cuts as well, which is adding pressure to wheat.
Talk of China cancelling open sales of US and French wheat, along with rolling up to 1 mmt of Australian sales forward, all have US wheat on the defensive.
Russian wheat FOB values have increased a bit, from $198 to $203 per mt. However, this is still well below US soft wheat at $229 per mt.
The French wheat crop is now said to be rated at 66% good to excellent, which is the lowest rating in four years.

Brandon Doherty