TFM Midday Update 2-10-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trending slightly higher at midday, supported by a fresh export sale announcement.
Brazil’s second crop corn planting progress remains well behind last year, with just 20% planted compared to 38% at the same time in 2023. The optimal planting window for much of the country closes at the end of February.
The USDA announced the sale of 365,000 tons of corn to Mexico this morning for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Managed Money traders continue to hold an enormous net long position in CBOT corn futures and options. As of February 4, funds’ gross long positions reached a record 447,897 contracts.

Soybeans are treading water at midday as improved weather forecasts for Brazil and Argentina temper market momentum.
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 15% completion late last week, according to AgRural — up 6% from the previous week but still trailing last year’s 23% pace.
A drier outlook for northern Brazil over the next two weeks should accelerate both soybean harvest and second crop corn planting, which faced delays earlier this month.
Argentina’s forecast now includes better rain chances over the next 10 days. While recent dryness may have already caused some irreversible crop stress, these rains will provide much-needed relief.

Wheat futures are lower at midday despite stronger corn prices to start the week.
Paris milling wheat futures are off to a strong start this week, driven by concerns over slowing wheat exports from the Black Sea region.
The Trump administration is expected to make a renewed push for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine this week. Wheat futures initially surged in 2022 when the conflict began but have spent much of 2024 hovering near pre-war price levels.

Keegan Madigan