TFM Midday Update 12-6-2024

CORN

Corn remains firm at midday on follow-through buying from yesterday’s bullish reversal off trendline support and solid export sales.
Strong weekly export sales, that were well above expectations, continue to be supportive, with total commitments now 33% ahead of last year at 1.346 bb.
The USDA will release updated supply and demand numbers on Tuesday. Early trade projections estimate a 32 mb drop in US corn carryout from last month to 1.906 bb, if realized could lend support to prices.

Soybeans turned lower at midday as they continue to look for direction, caught between supportive demand and rising South American crop estimates, ahead of next week’s USDA report.
Soybean oil is higher as it follows through on yesterday’s gains after rallying off trendline support on very strong export sales. Meanwhile March meal is setting new contract lows, pressuring soybeans.
Strong export sales that are pushing total commitments 12% ahead of last year at 1.33 bb, and record crush demand have supported prices, but rising SA crop estimates are a major headwind.
Early trade estimates for next week’s USDA report project ending stocks at 469 mb, down slightly from last month’s 470 mb, though an export sales increase could lower stocks further and support prices.

The wheat complex is mostly lower, consolidating yesterday’s rally as trendline resistance and higher Canadian production estimates cap gains.
Statistics Canada raised its estimate for the Canadian wheat crop to 35 mmt, 665,000 mt higher than trade estimates.
Wheat found support yesterday from reports of lower Russian supplies due to poor crop conditions and quality concerns with Australia’s crop.
Early trade estimates for next week’s USDA report predict US wheat carryout to come in at 814 mb (down 1 mb) with global stocks rising slightly to 257.7 mmt.

Scott Masters