TFM Midday Update 12-4-2024

CORN

The corn market remains soft at midday while it trades in the middle of its range after trading on both sides of unchanged in a tight 2 ½ – 4-cent range.
Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.073 million barrels/day, below expectations, with stocks at 23.003 million barrels — higher than the prior week but still below estimates.
The EU agreed to delay its deforestation law, which restricts imports of ag goods from deforested land, by one year. The law could significantly affect ag giants like Brazil and Indonesia, potentially benefiting US exports.

The soybean complex remains under pressure at midday as South American weather remains favorable for production, and the delay in 45Z biofuel tax credit guidance adds pressure to bean oil.
The USDA announced a sale of 30,000 mt of soybean oil to South Korea for 24/25 delivery, briefly boosting the market before gains faded.
The Biden administration stated that it won’t finalize 45Z fuel tax credit guidance before the end of its term, a development that continues to pressure the soybean oil and corn markets.
Malaysian palm oil stocks fell 4.3% in November and 25% year-over-year. The decline, due to harvest and transportation disruptions, has supported prices, now at a premium to soybean oil.

The wheat complex remains in negative territory at midday, led by losses in the Chicago wheat contracts as they trade through nearby support and post fresh contract lows.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that the country’s total grain exports have increased 39% year-over-year for the season that began July 1, with total wheat exports up nearly 55% at 8.96 mmt.
The rise in Black Sea wheat exports has come largely at the expense of European Union wheat exports. EU soft-wheat exports for the season that began July 1 have dropped 31% to 9.48 mmt as of Dec. 1 from 13.8 mmt last year according to the European Commission.
With largely favorable global wheat crop conditions, some believe many buyers remain sidelined, waiting for lower prices, keeping market rally potential limited.

Scott Masters