TFM Midday Update 12-13-2024

CORN

The corn market is quietly trading lower and near the bottom of its very tight 2 ½ cent range. It found initial support near the 20-day moving average, with selling pressure remaining from yesterday’s weak export sales.
Weekly export sales were at an eleven-week low for the week ending December 5, totaling 947,000 mt. However, they remain 29% ahead of last year.
The market’s concern is whether these strong sales are front-loaded ahead of the incoming Trump administration.
The strong US dollar, which makes US exports more expensive on the world market, combined with yesterday’s weak export sales report and solid crop estimates out of South America, is keeping sellers engaged.

Soybeans remain lower at midday as sellers maintain control following yesterday’s weak export sales report, with prospects for a large South American soybean crop remaining high.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 marketing year.
Conab raised its projection for Brazil’s soybean crop slightly to 166.21 mmt, while Abiove increased its estimate to 168.7 mmt. By comparison, the USDA’s estimate stands at 169 mmt.
While yesterday’s weekly export sales came in well below expectations, total commitments remain 12% ahead of last year.

After showing small gains in the overnight session, the wheat complex turned mostly lower as technical selling reemerged following yesterday’s weak trade.
According to GIWA, Western Australia is on track for its third-largest grain harvest on record, expected to produce 10.83 mmt of wheat, which is 0.5 mmt higher than November’s estimate.
Argentina’s 24/25 wheat production estimate has been raised by 0.5 mmt, with over half the crop now harvested. In contrast, reports suggest that Russia, a larger producer, may face production cuts, potentially supporting prices.

Scott Masters