TFM Midday Update 11-6-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading higher on the day, near session highs, as it follows through on yesterday’s strength. The December contract leads the rally after rebounding from overnight lows.
With the US election in the rearview mirror, the market will now focus on Friday’s USDA WASDE report. The average pre-report guess for 24/25 US corn ending stocks is 1.936 billion bushels, with a 183.8 bpa yield. October’s WASDE put corn ending stocks at 1.999 bb.
The European Commission reported that EU corn imports increased 8% year over year to 6.65 million metric tons, as of November 3. This could be one factor supporting US corn exports.

Soybeans are well off their overnight lows and trading near the top of their nearly 21-cent range with support coming from sharply higher soybean oil. Meanwhile, soybean meal is also well off session lows but remains about $2.50 lower on the day in the December contract.
A dealer survey in India indicated that the country’s palm oil imports for the month of October rose 59% to a three-month high, with sunflower oil imports up 57% compared to September. While soybean oil imports, fell 10%, the overall increase in demand is supportive to world veg oil prices.
The trade also estimates Brazilian soybean production at 168.6 million metric tons, versus 169 last month, with Argentina’s soybean production estimated at 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt.
Conab reported that Brazil’s soybean planting was 53.3% complete as of Sunday, Oct. 3, a 15% increase from the week prior, and 4.9% ahead of last year.
Friday the USDA will release its November WASDE report. The average trade guess for 24/25 soybean ending stocks is 535 million bushels, 15 million lower than last month. The trade also estimates yield to come in at 52.9 bpa from 53.1 in October.

The wheat complex, like corn, has rebounded from overnight lows and is trading mostly higher, near session highs across all three classes, though still within the week’s consolidation range.
Ukraine’s trade union UGA reported that the country’s grain and oilseed exports increased to 5.28 million metric tons in October from 3.13 mmt last year. Of that total 1.65 mmt was wheat.
Soft wheat exports from the EU dropped 32% year over year for this season as of Nov. 3, to 7.76 mmt from 11.33 mmt, according to the European Commission.
The average trade estimate for 24/25 wheat ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report is 813 million bushels, nearly unchanged from 812 mb in October.

Scott Masters